Draft Props, NFL 2020

Draft Props are the only thing to bet on, (now that the Chestnut has won the Major League Eating contest!) In prop bets, I want more than just expected picks, I want to find value and ones with more upside than down side. Also, most of the picks I'm on have "+odds", meaning underdogs with some value. I like to have multiple ways to win.

1. WRs UNDER 5.5 in 1st round, getting +140. Best class of WR ever? Maybe, but it's still a lot. Its such a deep class that there's plenty go around. In past 20 years there's been 3 classes over 5.5, and for the most part, they proved to be BUSTS! I'll take the nice odds on Under.

2. QBs over 4 in round 1. If you only get 4.5, pass. But I have over 4 because I think 4 is a LOCK. Somebody may sneak in a 5th late in the round, as QBs always become attractive last minute, and the cap rules (5th year on rookie deal for 1st rounders) make qbs in 1 so much more attractive than 2. Its a PUSH or a win. I like those odds.

3. J.Love UNDER 19.5. QB frenzy here. He's 4th QB but folks focus on "who's picking" and from about 15 to 20 nobody "needs" a QB. But, as draft goes, somebody will likely trade up and grab him.


4. Tua under 5.5 -125. I don't buy any of the BS about "they like Herbert". Mia takes him 5, or someone trades to 3. I don't like laying a minus, but he doesn't slip to 6.


5. Clemson over 1.5 in first round. They have 1 sure, 1 probable, 1 maybe. Easy W, but odds have moved from -130 to -180....if more, skip it.


6. Big 12 -1.5 over Pac 12 (1st rounders). The expected score is 3 to 2, a loss. But there is virtually no shot of a 3rd in Pac 12, and could very welll be only 1! There are about 4 Big 12's going very early in 2...so just need 1 to move into top 32. Worth the shot as can win 4-2 or 3-1.

May post more on draft day!




68 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All

NCAA Update and MLB Season

Hey everyone! Those that stuck it out through the slow first couple days of NCAA Tourney have been rewarded greatly! Please note, if you are planning to sign up for any of the MLB season plans, ple

March Madness UPDATE

There's now way I can answer all the March Madness emails I've gotten in the last hour, so posting this instead! YES, you can sign up for the NCAA Package and YES, it's OK to sign up late, after game

NCAA Tournament!

If you subscribed to the tournament package, there are some important NOTES now posted on the members only page. Make sure you can access it NOW, don't wait for game day! The picks will follow later