Draft Props are the only thing to bet on, (now that the Chestnut has won the Major League Eating contest!) In prop bets, I want more than just expected picks, I want to find value and ones with more upside than down side. Also, most of the picks I'm on have "+odds", meaning underdogs with some value. I like to have multiple ways to win.
1. WRs UNDER 5.5 in 1st round, getting +140. Best class of WR ever? Maybe, but it's still a lot. Its such a deep class that there's plenty go around. In past 20 years there's been 3 classes over 5.5, and for the most part, they proved to be BUSTS! I'll take the nice odds on Under.
2. QBs over 4 in round 1. If you only get 4.5, pass. But I have over 4 because I think 4 is a LOCK. Somebody may sneak in a 5th late in the round, as QBs always become attractive last minute, and the cap rules (5th year on rookie deal for 1st rounders) make qbs in 1 so much more attractive than 2. Its a PUSH or a win. I like those odds.
3. J.Love UNDER 19.5. QB frenzy here. He's 4th QB but folks focus on "who's picking" and from about 15 to 20 nobody "needs" a QB. But, as draft goes, somebody will likely trade up and grab him.
4. Tua under 5.5 -125. I don't buy any of the BS about "they like Herbert". Mia takes him 5, or someone trades to 3. I don't like laying a minus, but he doesn't slip to 6.
5. Clemson over 1.5 in first round. They have 1 sure, 1 probable, 1 maybe. Easy W, but odds have moved from -130 to -180....if more, skip it.
6. Big 12 -1.5 over Pac 12 (1st rounders). The expected score is 3 to 2, a loss. But there is virtually no shot of a 3rd in Pac 12, and could very welll be only 1! There are about 4 Big 12's going very early in 2...so just need 1 to move into top 32. Worth the shot as can win 4-2 or 3-1.
May post more on draft day!