Week 17 is so difficult to play. Other than the Ten/Indy game, there are no games that truly "matter" to both sides. Dallas, Saints and Sea all should rest players and may lay an egg today. Understandable as the only objective is to avoid injuries. Those games where one team "needs" it, have inflated lines, so they are tough to play too. Here's my strategy for today, to take a flyer at big day with little to risk!
All of the games where neither team "should play" have big spreads (and hence big $ lines). I think they are all 50-50 games, so rather than taking points, I'm playing $line dogs. Only have to hit a couple to be in the black. But I'm doing a "Round Robin parlay" for tiny amounts.
Cowboys +275 (even while resting, NYG not good enough to lay that!)
Ten +190 (game matters, but adding it as a good chance to win at home, plus a hedge out late night).
Cards +600 although leaving them out makes sense.
Avoiding the games where the playoff team may not play well, but should find a way to win: KC, SD, Bal, Pit, Hou, Pats, Rams, although the Bengals are really tempting at +600 as PItt gets pissed when Ravens routing by halftime!
So, a 7 team Round Robin results in 21 two team parlays, so going very light. If you are a $100 a game player, why not just $10 here (makes a $210 total in play).
Each 2 teamer will pay between 10 and 15 to 1 (except for TB, closer to 8-1). Cards much higher than that. So if you go 2-5, you get more than half you $ back. 3-4 and you have a nice day.
Is this a long shot? Yes.
But its a small risk, and based on the premise that these "big dogs" can just as easily WIN outright as cover the number.
Yes, it's almost like Gambling -so of course only do it where it is legal!