College Basketball – Best theory of 2018-19
I released this to the “Insider Subscribers” prior to season, so the deal is I don’t say it on air or website until after season….or at least very late in year. Which is now!
It will apply to 26 games this year, and I guaranteed in October it would go at least 17-9. Well, it’s now 18-3-1 with 4 to play, so let’s call it a win! And, it’s not too late to jump on last 4 – because plays like this can stay a bit “under the radar” in Vegas.
Theory: Virginia plays the best defense in the country. Everyone knows that. It’s “in the number”. But I believe no matter what you prepare for, they just come out and shock you early. The first time a team plays them, they really struggle offensively. So, I play every UVA Opponent UNDER their Team Total for the 1st Half. While you can say under for the game is good play, (it is), I say that line is usually where it belongs. I won’t play it for the game because even if you are on “right side”, there are 3 things that can work against you. 1) if the game becomes lopsided, defense may let up, 2) bench minutes in 2nd half can ruin it so I’m not betting on garbage time, 3) if the game is tight, nothing f's up an under like NCAA FT’s in final 2 minutes. Last 2 minutes can score 2 or 22, no thanks!
This theory does NOT apply when teams meet for the 2nd time in same year! I won’t play it in the rematch game, only the initial contest.
How’s it done so far? Well so far this year UVA opponents have gone UNDER their first half team total 18 times, pushed once, and gone over 3 times. Maryland went over by 1.5, Boston College by 3.5 and Duke by 3.5. Those are the only games the opponents have gotten to 30 points in the first half; and the only losses. Other games of note:
UNC (at home!) got only 29 - total was 31.5
South Car got 26 -total was 26.5
Notre Dame and Marshall got 25 (still winners) and Mid Ten put up 25 for a push.
The other 14 teams scored under 25 points, including 8 putting up 22 or less!
So - I'm feeling pretty good that the theory is a sound and at 18-3-1 so far!
The 3 “rematch games” (2nd matchup in same saeson ) has followed suit and opponents did better in game 2, as I expected. Duke put up 39 (ov 31), VT 27 (ov 26) and ND pushed at 25.
I believe this theory will hold true in the next 4 games as well vs Louisville, GaTech, Pitt and Syracure. Will skip the finale vs Louisville, because of the "rematch theory"!
Final note: lines will typically adjust to outcomes, of course! But my belief is something as small as a first half “team total” is not something that gets pounded or noticed by line setters in Las Vegas. Keep in mind, going under these low first half totals has a small margin to win as teams keep scoring 23 points with a total of 26, but it seems as it their opponents keep scoring 8 points in first 10 minutes of the game, before finally adjusting to UVA defense. That’s why this first half total is a sharp side.
At 18-3-1 it’s been a great run. Releasing now with 4 to play, and I’m predicting a 3-1 stretch run to finish year at 21-4-1!
As Romo says, “Here we go!” Good luck, and only bet what you can afford.........to WIN! :-)